Sat Dec 24, 10:54 AM

City poised to record lowest murder rate since '86

A map provided by the Toronto Police Service shows the homicides recorded in the city so far this year. With days to go until the New Year, the city is on pace for a remarkably low number of murders. (Toronto Police Service)

It took a mere two hours for Toronto to record its first homicide of 2011.

New Year celebrations were in fact still in full swing when Brian Takahashi, 20, was stabbed to death outside a bar near Bathurst and Queen streets, right in the heart of downtown Toronto.

Two weeks later Sgt Ryan Russell, a married father and 11-year veteran of the Toronto Police Force, was nearing the end of his shift when a barefooted man stole a snowplow near Avenue Road and Parliament Street and took off on a two-hour rampage through the city.

Russell was standing outside his cruiser firing at the runaway vehicle as it careened into him at full speed, fatally pinning him against his cruiser around 6 a.m.

It was a shocking and violent beginning to a year that has turned out to be anything but as Toronto records its lowest homicide rate since 1986.

With days left in the year, Toronto has so far recorded 44 homicides.

That's down from 62 in 2010 and 80 in 2005, which was dubbed the ‘Year of the Gun' for a number of brazen shootings, including the Boxing Day slaying of a 15-year-old bystander outside the Eaton Centre.

"It was very dark days back then. There was a tremendous amount of fear and concern and people were afraid of walking in some neighbourhoods regardless of whether it was daytime or nighttime," Michael Thompson, a city councillor who was serving his first year in office at the time, told CP24.com in recent interview. "There was a view that anyone could be at risk at any given time and back then, that was probably fair."

The crime rate has been in decline across Canada since 1991, suggesting reduced bloodshed in the city may just be part of a wider trend, but Thompson doesn't see it that way.

A fierce anti-violence advocate, Thompson thinks the city is finally starting to see the impact of several programs put in place in the wake of widespread gun violence during the mid 2000s, including a city-wide community safety plan and a police task force on guns and gangs.

Even little things have helped "change the culture," Thompson said, offering up school breakfast programs, library improvements, youth drop-in centres and affordable housing initiatives in his Scarborough-Centre riding as examples.

"It really is about creating a cocktail for success. We have focused on education, we have demanded a higher standard from every member of our society and we have made sure we have role models demonstrating that it is better to take a slow route to success than a fast route that will lead to failure and it's making a difference," he said. "Many years ago I would hear from young people who would say they would rather engage in (illicit) short-term activities, make a little money and have a little bit of life, though a dangerous one. You don't hear that as much anymore."

Of the 44 homicides so far this year, 26 were shootings, six were stabbings and the remaining 12 were classified as other. The police division with the highest number of occurrences is 31 Division, bounded by Steeles Avenue to the north, Lawrence Avenue to the south, the Humber River to the west and Keele Street to the east. It listed eight homicides followed by Scarborough's 43 Division with four.

Community policing cited

Toronto Police spokesman Tony Vella declined to comment on the homicide rate, citing a department policy not to prematurely discuss statistics. However, Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair has in the past credited the Toronto Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy (TAVIS) for an overall decline in crime.

Launched in 2006 with $7 million in provincial funding, the program puts an emphasis on having officers patrol communities on foot and by bike, building relationships with residents in the process.

"Parents and young people are telling us who the drug dealers are, they are telling us who the people with the guns are and we are starting to address this "stop snitching" mentality that was so prevalent a few years ago," said Thomspon, who is also the vice-chair of the Toronto Police Services Board.

Aging population could play role

While connecting the falling homicide rate to social programs isn't without merit, doing so neglects a big part of the story, says a York University criminologist.

"Declining homicide rates are more accurately seen as peaks and valleys. They are not necessarily reflective of any significant change in the safety or security within the city," said Margaret Beare in a telephone interview with CP24.com. "Factors like demographics are likely more responsible than anything that is being done like get-tough legislation or policing strategies."

According to a 2006 Statistics Canada study, the median age in Toronto is 39.5, up from 37.6 just five years earlier. The number of senior citizens is also up, with the same study showing that just under 12 per cent of Torontonians are now over the age of 65.

"Toronto is not unique in terms of a decreasing crime rate," Beare said. "Police in various U.S. cities have claimed responsibility for their reduced crime rates as well, but it invariably turns out to relate more to demographics."

Still, the extent to which homicides are down in Toronto is hard to ignore.

Once considered the most dangerous city in Canada, Toronto didn't even rank in the top 50 on MacLean's list of Canada's most violent cities earlier this month – it was 52nd.

"There is no part of Toronto that I am afraid of walking in at midnight or two in the morning and it hasn't always been that way," said Thompson, who recalls receiving death threats when he first spoke out against gang violence in the early 2000s. "We are living in an environment that is much more at peace than at war."

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